ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LFLooking for Orgloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 12 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 12 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 8 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mnz · 8 games
Looking for Org
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Matthew · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
payk · 1 game
Earthshaker
PiPi · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
payk · 1 game
Lich
Yadomi · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
PiPi · 1 game
Pugnaoften banned
Yadomi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
444 picks · 359 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 548 bans
Batrider
368 picks · 469 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Gyrocopter
352 picks · 563 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 587 bans
Phoenix
348 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
Fusion 59%Looking for Org 41%
The model gave 59% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 23:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMnz
Morphlingpayk
ViperLeostyle
SniperPiPi
Nyx AssassinMichael
BristlebackVitaly
Ogre MagiPrada
PhoenixYadomi
50% · 132 games
ClockwerkMatthew
Game 2prediction correct29:37
Fusion 56%Looking for Org 44%
The model gave 56% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 45:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaMnz
LycanVitaly
EarthshakerLeostyle
Spectrepayk
BatriderMichael
TinyPiPi
Ogre MagiPrada
DoomMatthew
49% · 221 game
Dark WillowYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 61%
Series resultFusion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2