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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blade breakersloss 1:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infamouswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blade breakers

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Accel · 5 games
20%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cara · 3 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Accel · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Cara · 2 games
50%

Infamous

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
0%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
443 picks · 357 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
368 picks · 466 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
365 picks · 191 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 586 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 559 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
347 picks · 380 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 374 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Blade breakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:14
Blade breakers 40%Infamous 60%
The model gave 60% on Infamous — the game was taken by Blade breakers in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightbsK7-
53% · 152 games42% · 100 games
MedusaDM
Medusa
Tiny
TinyBenjimon
58% · 154 games39% · 110 games
LinaS1RENM
Lina
Chen
ChenAccel
60% · 72 games47% · 168 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Game 2prediction correct20:35
Blade breakers 41%Infamous 59%
The model gave 59% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 43:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusbsK7-
57% · 143 games40% · 126 games
Dragon KnightDM
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainBenjimon
44% · 73 games47% · 84 games
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenAccel
64% · 84 games48% · 90 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Game 3prediction correct9:30
Blade breakers 40%Infamous 60%
The model gave 60% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 22:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackbsK7-
56% · 80 games46% · 54 games
Ember SpiritS1RENM
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerBenjimon
54% · 45 games54% · 31 game
WeaverDM
Weaver
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiAccel
43% · 48 games49% · 88 games
BeastmasterHermit
Beastmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 74%
Series resultInfamous 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3