PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionMEMarpic Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yoru Ryodanwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Marpic Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Yoru Ryodan
Iooften banned
Ezekiel · 1 game
Lion
Ezekiel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
443 picks · 357 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 544 bans
Batrider
368 picks · 466 bans
Lion
365 picks · 191 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 586 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 559 bans
Phoenix
347 picks · 380 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Marpic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Marpic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:38
Marpic Esports 62%Yoru Ryodan 38%
The model gave 62% on Marpic Esports — the game was taken by Marpic Esports in 33:51.
Game 2prediction missed33:43
Marpic Esports 62%Yoru Ryodan 38%
The model gave 62% on Marpic Esports — the game was taken by Yoru Ryodan in 35:14.
Game 3prediction missed28:36
Marpic Esports 62%Yoru Ryodan 38%
The model gave 62% on Marpic Esports — the game was taken by Yoru Ryodan in 48:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarpic Esports · 62%
Series resultYoru Ryodan 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3