European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearloss 0:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xxanblwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Delight · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Lion
Delight · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Rubick
jAMES · 1 game
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
443 picks · 357 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 545 bans
Batrider
368 picks · 466 bans
Lion
365 picks · 191 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 589 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 559 bans
Tusk
349 picks · 374 bans
Phoenix
347 picks · 380 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% xanbl
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Winter Bear 71%xanbl 29%
The model gave 71% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by xanbl.
Game 2prediction missed
Winter Bear 71%xanbl 29%
The model gave 71% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by xanbl.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 71%
Series resultxanbl 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2