ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 11 games
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
Batridersignature
Antares · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 7 games
ASAKURA
Invokeroften banned
young G · 5 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 4 games
Lion
slimeyao · 4 games
Bounty Hunter
333 · 3 games
Lich
so bad · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
439 picks · 355 bans
Clockwerk
406 picks · 544 bans
Batrider
366 picks · 464 bans
Lion
364 picks · 191 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 588 bans
Tusk
350 picks · 372 bans
Gyrocopter
346 picks · 556 bans
Phoenix
343 picks · 379 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:4
Virtus.pro 72%ASAKURA 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:26.
Game 2prediction correct37:17
Virtus.pro 72%ASAKURA 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 72%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2