European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Hryvnialoss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LLFGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
Lunaoften banned
paw · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
paw · 1 game
LFG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
438 picks · 356 bans
Clockwerk
407 picks · 544 bans
Batrider
366 picks · 464 bans
Lion
364 picks · 191 bans
Tusk
354 picks · 372 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 587 bans
Gyrocopter
347 picks · 554 bans
Phoenix
342 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% LFG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% LFG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Hryvnia 48%LFG 52%
The model gave 52% on LFG — the game was taken by LFG.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Hryvnia 48%LFG 52%
The model gave 52% on LFG — the game was taken by Team Hryvnia.
Game 3prediction correct
Team Hryvnia 48%LFG 52%
The model gave 52% on LFG — the game was taken by LFG.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFG · 52%
Series resultLFG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3