ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Y5 Esportsloss 0:1series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ASAKURAwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Y5 Esports
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
ASAKURA
Invokeroften banned
young G · 5 games
Lion
slimeyao · 4 games
Bounty Hunter
333 · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Lich
so bad · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
438 picks · 355 bans
Clockwerk
407 picks · 544 bans
Batrider
366 picks · 464 bans
Lion
364 picks · 191 bans
Tusk
354 picks · 372 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 587 bans
Gyrocopter
347 picks · 553 bans
Phoenix
342 picks · 378 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:30
Y5 Esports 32%ASAKURA 68%
The model gave 68% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterDominic
Morphling7jesu
64% · 46 games
BrewmasterInfernal
38% · 17 games
Linayoung G
64% · 7 games
WarlockKidaro
55% · 40 games
Nyx Assassinslimeyao
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 82%
Series resultASAKURA 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1