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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 20 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
84%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 17 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
36%

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
DaaD- · 19 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 18 games
39%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 16 games
56%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MikSa` · 14 games
36%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Nefrit · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 12 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
436 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 462 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
363 picks · 191 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 372 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 586 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 550 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
339 picks · 376 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total73% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:10
Nigma Galaxy 65%Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMiracle-
57% · 115 games35% · 30 games
Phantom AssassinDaaD-
Phantom Assassin
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
58% · 91 game42% · 143 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawNo!ob
47% · 173 games47% · 441 game
Dragon KnightStojkov
Dragon Knight
Lion
LionOmaR
49% · 208 games54% · 130 games
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
54% · 262 games50% · 105 games
LichLeBronDota
Lich
Game 2prediction correct38:19
Nigma Galaxy 64%Zero Tenacity 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMiracle-
57% · 179 games50% · 189 games
MorphlingDaaD-
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
48% · 276 games45% · 151 game
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNo!ob
42% · 133 games51% · 258 games
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
51% · 254 games55% · 91 game
Nyx AssassinPablo
Nyx Assassin
Io
IoGH
57% · 75 games45% · 228 games
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 73%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2