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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chimera Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Lion
Lionsignature
Ekki · 37 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 34 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
SoNNeikO · 34 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
SoNNeikO · 28 games
64%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 27 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 27 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Smiling Knight · 26 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xibbe · 24 games
71%

Chimera Esports

Muerta
Muertasignature
OneJey · 13 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 9 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 9 games
100%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TA2000 · 8 games
88%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Panto · 8 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Panto · 8 games
88%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 7 games
86%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Daxak · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
436 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
405 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
365 picks · 462 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
363 picks · 191 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 372 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 586 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 550 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
339 picks · 376 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 81%
Hero pool strength58% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:37
AVULUS 53%Chimera Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 43:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingSmiling Knight
48% · 231 game50% · 368 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritStormstormer
51% · 195 games51% · 146 games
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerXibbe
52% · 161 game47% · 422 games
PangolierLorenof
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
47% · 334 games56% · 155 games
Ogre MagiPanto
Ogre Magi
Batrider
BatriderEkki
48% · 466 games49% · 296 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct40:24
AVULUS 51%Chimera Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackSmiling Knight
58% · 200 games53% · 148 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerXibbe
48% · 142 games53% · 129 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
45% · 200 games48% · 164 games
MuertaOneJey
Muerta
Lich
LichSoNNeikO
46% · 117 games47% · 101 game
EnigmaDaxak
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinEkki
55% · 149 games47% · 266 games
ClockwerkPanto
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct23:8
AVULUS 55%Chimera Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 21:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSmiling Knight
47% · 83 games49% · 135 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Lycan
LycanXibbe
43% · 23 games57% · 185 games
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Monkey King
Monkey KingStormstormer
51% · 187 games49% · 104 games
BrewmasterDaxak
Brewmaster
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanEkki
45% · 55 games54% · 76 games
Ogre MagiPanto
Ogre Magi
Phoenix
PhoenixSoNNeikO
47% · 309 games55% · 157 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 57%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3