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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Tideboundwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Poloson · 18 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
44%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 15 games
67%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 13 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 13 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
flyfly · 12 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 12 games
58%

Team Tidebound

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
pLAnet · 4 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NothingToSay · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pLAnet · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
shiro · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Faith_bian · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
y` · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
361 picks · 458 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 190 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 587 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 549 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
338 picks · 371 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 64%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:23
Yakult Brothers 52%Team Tidebound 48%
The model gave 52% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerAme
40% · 31 game49% · 162 games
Gyrocoptershiro
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
51% · 192 games56% · 225 games
TinyNothingToSay
Tiny
Tidehunter
Tidehunterzeal
47% · 76 games47% · 34 games
Night StalkerFaith_bian
Night Stalker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinBoBoKa
57% · 94 games46% · 75 games
Ogre Magiy`
Ogre Magi
Pugna
Pugna天命
46% · 146 games57% · 43 games
GrimstrokepLAnet
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed18:33
Yakult Brothers 54%Team Tidebound 46%
The model gave 54% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 53:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoEmo
51% · 40 games43% · 13 games
Bloodseekershiro
Bloodseeker
Earthshaker
EarthshakerAme
48% · 75 games54% · 142 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Lycan
Lycanzeal
45% · 33 games46% · 155 games
DoomFaith_bian
Doom
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
55% · 321 game51% · 202 games
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Shadow Demon
Pugna
Pugna天命
52% · 104 games45% · 61 game
Zeusy`
Zeus
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 54%
Series resultTeam Tidebound 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2