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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Execrationwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The MongolZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
46%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 12 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Abat · 8 games
38%
Io
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 9 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 6 games
17%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
JG · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
433 picks · 353 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 544 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
361 picks · 458 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 190 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 587 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
343 picks · 549 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
338 picks · 371 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 41%
Hero pool strength51% The MongolZ
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total67% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:33
Execration 62%The MongolZ 38%
The model gave 62% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 1:00:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAkashi
57% · 111 games52% · 145 games
DoomJG
Doom
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTino-
52% · 62 games44% · 143 games
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixShanks
51% · 257 games47% · 178 games
SnapfireHishge
Snapfire
Lich
Lichcml
48% · 36 games
Game 2prediction correct39:19
Execration 60%The MongolZ 40%
The model gave 60% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 31:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaAkashi
51% · 145 games51% · 171 game
InvokerWonder'boy
Invoker
Magnus
MagnusTino-
55% · 130 games47% · 233 games
Primal BeastJG
Primal Beast
Batrider
BatriderShanks
53% · 294 games48% · 291 game
HoodwinkHishge
Hoodwink
Pugna
Pugnacml
47% · 126 games
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 67%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2