PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
InterActive Philippinesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Talon Esports
Clockwerksignature
Kuku · 24 games
Phoenixsignature
Kuku · 20 games
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 18 games
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
InterActive Philippines
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
432 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 543 bans
Lion
361 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
360 picks · 457 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 586 bans
Gyrocopter
342 picks · 548 bans
Phoenix
338 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 55%
Hero pool strength50% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:10
Talon Esports 81%InterActive Philippines 19%
The model gave 81% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMikoto
MagnusNishababy
TinyNatsumi
TerrorbladeWs
ZeusKuku
ClockwerkJhocam
Game 2prediction correct40:19
Talon Esports 82%InterActive Philippines 18%
The model gave 82% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 35:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMikoto
InvokerNishababy
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Night StalkerWs
ZeusKuku
Dark WillowJhocam
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 94%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2