PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 1:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Young Bloodloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Parker · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Yadomi · 18 games
Lionsignature
Tims · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 17 games
Sand Kingsignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Brewmastersignature
Sacred · 14 games
Young Blood
Night Stalkeroften banned
Red · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 2 games
Earthshaker
MamangDaya · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Lich
LOyd · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Red · 1 game
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
432 picks · 353 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 543 bans
Lion
361 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
360 picks · 457 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 586 bans
Gyrocopter
342 picks · 548 bans
Phoenix
338 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Young Blood
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
BOOM Esports 94%Young Blood 6%
The model gave 94% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 94%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1