The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Mentality Monsterwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CTcincai teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mentality Monster
Silencer
Juju · 7 games
Snapfireoften banned
GaN- · 5 games
Tiny
Cije · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
OneJey · 3 games
Largooften banned
OneJey · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Juju · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
GaN- · 3 games
Axeoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
cincai team
Doomoften banned
Red · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
MangO · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
TrazaM · 2 games
Axeoften banned
TrazaM · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Red · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
Red · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
632 picks · 422 bans
Rubick
542 picks · 305 bans
Phoenix
488 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
474 picks · 400 bans
Pangolier
431 picks · 633 bans
Puck
355 picks · 1011 bans
Tusk
348 picks · 298 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Mentality Monster
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Mentality Monster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:17
Mentality Monster 65%cincai team 35%
The model gave 65% on Mentality Monster — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 27:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCije
WindrangerMangO
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
TimbersawRed
Ember SpiritGaN-
Monkey KingWonder'boy
PhoenixJuju
Treant ProtectorTrazaM
ClockwerkOneJey
Game 2prediction correct20:6
Mentality Monster 64%cincai team 36%
The model gave 64% on Mentality Monster — the game was taken by Mentality Monster in 18:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
UnderlordRed
MeepoCije
SlarkMangO
ViperGaN-
Ember SpiritWonder'boy
Keeper of the LightOneJey
BaneTrazaM
Treant ProtectorJuju
Model check result
Model favoriteMentality Monster · 77%
Series resultMentality Monster 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2