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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
M80loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Fusion

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 13 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 12 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 10 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 7 games
43%

M80

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Elmisho · 23 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Elmisho · 21 game
19%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
MoOz · 18 games
39%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
MoOz · 17 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Vitaly · 16 games
31%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Elmisho · 15 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
MoOz · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
payk · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
431 picks · 351 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 543 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 190 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
359 picks · 455 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 585 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
342 picks · 548 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
338 picks · 368 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% M80
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:23
Fusion 50%M80 50%
The model gave 50% on Fusion — the game was taken by M80 in 37:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
44% · 36 games58% · 146 games
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLeostyle
41% · 97 games60% · 90 games
BristlebackILICH-
Bristleback
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFrank
53% · 11 games55% · 98 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Muerta
MuertaMichael
47% · 230 games52% · 144 games
Dark WillowElmisho
Dark Willow
Pugna
PugnaPrada
51% · 165 games40% · 61 game
LichMoOz
Lich
Game 2prediction correct35:16
Fusion 50%M80 50%
The model gave 50% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 33:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinMnz
43% · 46 games48% · 243 games
Dragon KnightK1
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusLeostyle
53% · 232 games47% · 217 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Underlord
UnderlordFrank
50% · 79 games56% · 26 games
Night StalkerILICH-
Night Stalker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
49% · 375 games47% · 285 games
BatriderElmisho
Batrider
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
59% · 112 games50% · 73 games
LichMoOz
Lich
Game 3prediction correct42:15
Fusion 54%M80 46%
The model gave 54% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMnz
47% · 391 game45% · 216 games
SvenK1
Sven
Puck
PuckLeostyle
53% · 268 games51% · 404 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFrank
59% · 124 games39% · 203 games
TerrorbladeILICH-
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomMichael
58% · 261 game44% · 255 games
TuskElmisho
Tusk
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPrada
58% · 114 games49% · 80 games
LichMoOz
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteM80 · 52%
Series resultFusion 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3