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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ascent Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
25%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Ksh · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Young PH · 2 games
50%

Ascent Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 5 games
20%
Lion
Lion
TrazaM · 5 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TrazaM · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
TrazaM · 3 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
czy · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
430 picks · 351 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 543 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 190 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
359 picks · 455 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 584 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
340 picks · 548 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
336 picks · 368 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Yangon Galacticos 63%Ascent Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 26:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKsh
47% · 102 games55% · 88 games
GyrocopterMangO
Gyrocopter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYoung PH
46% · 100 games54% · 34 games
Nyx AssassinTrazaM
Nyx Assassin
51% · 80 games
Phoenixczy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct26:25
Yangon Galacticos 64%Ascent Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKsh
50% · 200 games56% · 77 games
LifestealerMangO
Lifestealer
Slardar
SlardarYoung PH
49% · 62 games51% · 72 games
MuertaTrazaM
Muerta
44% · 113 games
Phoenixczy
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 77%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2