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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Marpic Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 4 games
75%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Fayde · 4 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Fayde · 4 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 4 games
75%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 3 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 3 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
YamSun · 3 games
67%

Marpic Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
429 picks · 349 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 541 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
360 picks · 190 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
359 picks · 452 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 582 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 546 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
336 picks · 363 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:2
Wildcard Gaming 86%Marpic Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 15:57.
Game 2prediction correct28:2
Wildcard Gaming 86%Marpic Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 16:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 86%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2