PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yoru Ryodanloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ssaadboyswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yoru Ryodan
No games played over 6 months.
saadboys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
429 picks · 349 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 541 bans
Lion
360 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
359 picks · 452 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 582 bans
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 546 bans
Phoenix
336 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Yoru Ryodan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% saadboys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:35
Yoru Ryodan 46%saadboys 54%
The model gave 54% on saadboys — the game was taken by saadboys in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
IoEzekiel
GyrocopterCucahook
43% · 3 games
LichIfrit
44% · 5 games
TuskN1NE
Game 2prediction correct39:60
Yoru Ryodan 46%saadboys 54%
The model gave 54% on saadboys — the game was taken by saadboys in 48:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LionEzekiel
AlchemistCucahook
47% · 79 games
MuertaN1NE
43% · 24 games
LichIfrit
Model check result
Model favoritesaadboys · 60%
Series resultsaadboys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2