PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLFLooking for Orgwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Perro Negroloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Looking for Org
No games played over 6 months.
Perro Negro
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
429 picks · 349 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 541 bans
Lion
360 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
359 picks · 452 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 582 bans
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 546 bans
Phoenix
336 picks · 363 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Perro Negro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct1:0
Looking for Org 57%Perro Negro 43%
The model gave 57% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 50:24.
Game 2prediction missed26:41
Looking for Org 52%Perro Negro 48%
The model gave 52% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Perro Negro in 47:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightpayk
Phantom AssassinWits
BeastmasterVitaly
Enigmakendallx
PangolierPiPi
EnchantressMjz
LichYadomi
TuskMatthew
Game 3prediction correct37:15
Looking for Org 53%Perro Negro 47%
The model gave 53% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterpayk
UrsaWits
BeastmasterVitaly
Terrorbladekendallx
EarthshakerPiPi
LichMjz
DoomMatthew
PugnaYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 57%
Series resultLooking for Org 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3