PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mmotiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Muerta
Genek · 9 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 7 games
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
motis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
428 picks · 348 bans
Clockwerk
407 picks · 539 bans
Lion
360 picks · 190 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 452 bans
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 580 bans
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 544 bans
Phoenix
335 picks · 362 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% motis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hokori 79%motis 21%
The model gave 79% on Hokori — the game was taken by motis.
Game 2prediction missed
Hokori 79%motis 21%
The model gave 79% on Hokori — the game was taken by motis.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 79%
Series resultmotis 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2