The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Grey Tracwin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
剑剑来！loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Grey Trac
Dawnbreakeroften banned
BEYOND · 3 games
Muertaoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 3 games
Rubick
Rico · 3 games
Bane
Undyne_ · 2 games
Centaur Warrunner
BEYOND · 2 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Dust · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Dust · 2 games
剑来！
Tiny
Hao · 4 games
Hoodwink
Frisk · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Dstones · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
RedPanda · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Inflame · 2 games
Undying
RedPanda · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Inflame · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
634 picks · 422 bans
Rubick
540 picks · 303 bans
Phoenix
488 picks · 587 bans
Tiny
476 picks · 400 bans
Pangolier
432 picks · 633 bans
Puck
357 picks · 1009 bans
Tusk
348 picks · 298 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% 剑来！
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Grey Trac
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:20
Grey Trac 50%剑来！ 50%
The model gave 50% on 剑来！ — the game was taken by 剑来！ in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendRA1NCLOUD
TerrorbladeHao
BristlebackBEYOND
BeastmasterInflame
Storm SpiritDust
InvokerDstones
RubickRico
PhoenixRedPanda
BaneUndyne_
LionFrisk
Game 2prediction missed34:9
Grey Trac 49%剑来！ 51%
The model gave 51% on 剑来！ — the game was taken by Grey Trac in 29:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoRA1NCLOUD
TerrorbladeHao
DawnbreakerBEYOND
LycanInflame
Death ProphetDust
Ember SpiritDstones
SilencerUndyne_
PhoenixRedPanda
LionRico
HoodwinkFrisk
Game 3prediction correct
Grey Trac 50%剑来！ 50%
The model gave 50% on Grey Trac — the game was taken by Grey Trac.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrey Trac · 50%
Series resultGrey Trac 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3