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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 0:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Secretwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulnit · 24 games
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 22 games
45%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
bengan · 19 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 17 games
35%

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kyzko · 7 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Kyzko · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
427 picks · 347 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 537 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
358 picks · 447 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
358 picks · 190 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 375 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 578 bans
45%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 536 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
334 picks · 358 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Team Secret
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total51% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:38
MOUZ 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 40:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 51%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1