ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Y5 Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
selfhate · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 8 games
Muerta
prblms · 8 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ethereal · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 7 games
Tinysignature
Ethereal · 7 games
Y5 Esports
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
427 picks · 347 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 540 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 450 bans
Lion
358 picks · 190 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 376 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 582 bans
Gyrocopter
338 picks · 539 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 821 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 40%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Hydra 86%Y5 Esports 14%
The model gave 86% on Hydra — the game was taken by Y5 Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 86%
Series resultY5 Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1