ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 1:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
4Piratesloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ASAKURA
Invokeroften banned
young G · 4 games
Lion
slimeyao · 4 games
Bounty Hunter
333 · 3 games
Lich
so bad · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 9 games
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
427 picks · 347 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 540 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 450 bans
Lion
358 picks · 190 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 376 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 820 bans
Gyrocopter
337 picks · 539 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:22
ASAKURA 54%4Pirates 46%
The model gave 54% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 39:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter7jesu
Templar AssassinOtaker
Invokeryoung G
Bristlebackмистер мораль
BrewmasterInfernal
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Nyx Assassinslimeyao
Phoenixariel
JakiroKidaro
ClockwerkPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 57%
Series resultASAKURA 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1