ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 1:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 12 games
Enchantresssignature
Rein · 11 games
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
Batridersignature
Antares · 8 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 8 games
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 7 games
Aim Possible
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
427 picks · 346 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 540 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 450 bans
Lion
358 picks · 190 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 376 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 819 bans
Gyrocopter
337 picks · 538 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:11
Virtus.pro 90%Aim Possible 10%
The model gave 90% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 90%
Series resultVirtus.pro 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1