ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Letoloss 0:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ReBelwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Leto
No games played over 6 months.
ReBel
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Max · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Max · 1 game
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Rubick
Max · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
426 picks · 346 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 540 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 450 bans
Lion
357 picks · 189 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 376 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 817 bans
Gyrocopter
337 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Leto
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% ReBel
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Leto 47%ReBel 53%
The model gave 53% on ReBel — the game was taken by ReBel.
Model check result
Model favoriteReBel · 53%
Series resultReBel 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1