PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Fusionwin 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Blade breakersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fusion
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 13 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 11 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 9 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 9 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 7 games
Blade breakers
Marsoften banned
Cara · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Accel · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Ogre Magi
FeelinG · 2 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Cara · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
425 picks · 345 bans
Clockwerk
408 picks · 538 bans
Batrider
358 picks · 448 bans
Lion
357 picks · 188 bans
Tusk
355 picks · 376 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 582 bans
Beastmaster
337 picks · 816 bans
Gyrocopter
334 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Fusion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:53
Fusion 65%Blade breakers 35%
The model gave 65% on Fusion — the game was taken by Blade breakers in 1:05:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMnz
Queen of PainBenjimon
Earth SpiritLeostyle
GyrocopterbsK7-
Dark SeerFrank
Ogre MagiAccel
PhoenixPrada
ClockwerkMichael
Game 2prediction correct46:32
Fusion 62%Blade breakers 38%
The model gave 62% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 50:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreMnz
TinybsK7-
Ember SpiritLeostyle
ViperBenjimon
EnigmaFrank
Ogre MagiAccel
GyrocopterPrada
TuskMichael
Game 3prediction correct43:16
Fusion 65%Blade breakers 35%
The model gave 65% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 28:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMnz
GyrocopterbsK7-
TinyLeostyle
Storm SpiritBenjimon
BristlebackFrank
Ogre MagiAccel
ChenPrada
MuertaMichael
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 76%
Series resultFusion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3