?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
queezy · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Panto · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Panto · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
v1olent- · 16 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
OneJey · 16 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirage · 15 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Alberkaaa · 13 games
62%

Quantum Team

Magnus
Magnusoften banned
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Fezor · 8 games
75%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
bashka · 7 games
43%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Somnia · 6 games
67%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
bashka · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Somnia · 5 games
20%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Somnia · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
424 picks · 344 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 538 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
357 picks · 187 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
356 picks · 448 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 377 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 583 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 818 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
333 picks · 534 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:21
HULIGANI 64%Quantum Team 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 44:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
42% · 349 games57% · 171 game
BrewmasterAnkou
Brewmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
48% · 224 games44% · 40 games
Phantom Assassinbashka
Phantom Assassin
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
48% · 277 games59% · 172 games
InvokerRvze
Invoker
Muerta
Muertaqueezy
48% · 137 games46% · 411 games
Batriderkolya_kaBAN68
Batrider
Lich
LichRESPECT
49% · 60 games55% · 253 games
Crystal MaidenFezor
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct23:15
HULIGANI 66%Quantum Team 34%
The model gave 66% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
52% · 354 games39% · 110 games
TidehunterAnkou
Tidehunter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
53% · 250 games47% · 408 games
Morphlingbashka
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
49% · 433 games52% · 157 games
SniperRvze
Sniper
Chen
ChenRESPECT
63% · 142 games46% · 502 games
Batriderkolya_kaBAN68
Batrider
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
51% · 355 games47% · 357 games
Crystal MaidenFezor
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 76%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2