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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Jigglinloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
77%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 20 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 18 games
83%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 16 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
36%

Jigglin

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 5 games
40%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 3 games
100%
Muerta
Muerta
Lelis · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Se · 2 games
100%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Copy · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Lelis · 2 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
423 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
424 picks · 344 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 539 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 377 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
356 picks · 186 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
355 picks · 448 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 582 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 817 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
333 picks · 531 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:23
Nigma Galaxy 61%Jigglin 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMiracle-
46% · 39 games47% · 69 games
LinaCopy
Lina
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
53% · 149 games47% · 194 games
Dragon Knight423
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
54% · 217 games51% · 146 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
45% · 206 games57% · 84 games
Nyx AssassinLelis
Nyx Assassin
Io
IoGH
52% · 67 games46% · 185 games
PhoenixSe
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct47:10
Nigma Galaxy 61%Jigglin 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
49% · 114 games47% · 39 games
Meepo423
Meepo
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
54% · 67 games45% · 125 games
LinaCopy
Lina
Mars
MarsNo!ob
49% · 161 game52% · 296 games
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
Centaur Warrunner
Magnus
MagnusOmaR
51% · 107 games56% · 111 games
Nyx AssassinLelis
Nyx Assassin
Lion
LionGH
47% · 139 games42% · 17 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2