PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamloss 1:2series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
swedenstrong · 21 game
Enchantressoften banned
RESPECT · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
Munkushi~ · 18 games
Invokersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 18 games
Weaver
swedenstrong · 17 games
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
423 picks · 343 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 539 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 377 bans
Lion
355 picks · 184 bans
Batrider
354 picks · 446 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 581 bans
Beastmaster
335 picks · 815 bans
Gyrocopter
333 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:16
1w Team 86%Ban9PivoSamogon 14%
The model gave 86% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 29:30.
Game 2prediction missed26:34
1w Team 86%Ban9PivoSamogon 14%
The model gave 86% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 41:16.
Game 3prediction missed11:28
1w Team 86%Ban9PivoSamogon 14%
The model gave 86% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 34:44.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 86%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3