?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Talon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Kuku · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 19 games
58%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 18 games
78%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Mikoto · 18 games
72%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mikoto · 17 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ws · 16 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kuku · 16 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Akashi · 15 games
47%

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
cml · 13 games
46%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
cml · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marci
Tino- · 10 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Abat · 10 games
60%
Io
Iooften banned
Tino- · 8 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shanks · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
422 picks · 341 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
408 picks · 540 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
359 picks · 378 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
355 picks · 183 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 443 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
349 picks · 581 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 813 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
331 picks · 525 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Talon Esports
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total80% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:30
Talon Esports 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 51:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
44% · 209 games46% · 49 games
Anti-MageAkashi
Anti-Mage
Monkey King
Monkey KingMikoto
57% · 113 games50% · 195 games
MarciTino-
Marci
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
47% · 75 games50% · 366 games
GyrocopterShanks
Gyrocopter
Phoenix
PhoenixKuku
46% · 204 games53% · 181 game
Pugnacml
Pugna
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJhocam
55% · 190 games
Game 2prediction missed28:36
Talon Esports 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 48:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistNatsumi
54% · 129 games50% · 116 games
Templar AssassinAkashi
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
46% · 58 games49% · 157 games
MagnusTino-
Magnus
Night Stalker
Night StalkerWs
46% · 40 games49% · 241 game
ClockwerkShanks
Clockwerk
Pugna
PugnaJhocam
54% · 142 games40% · 51 game
Lichcml
Lich
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKuku
59% · 196 games
Game 3prediction correct39:32
Talon Esports 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 56:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMikoto
49% · 114 games48% · 311 games
GyrocopterAkashi
Gyrocopter
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNatsumi
45% · 155 games52% · 211 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Bristleback
BristlebackWs
57% · 127 games50% · 276 games
PhoenixShanks
Phoenix
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuku
52% · 308 games47% · 131 game
Marcicml
Marci
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJhocam
51% · 225 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 80%
Series resultTalon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3