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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The MongolZloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
InterActive Philippineswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

The MongolZ

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Wonder'boy · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Wonder'boy · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 6 games
17%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
JG · 4 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Wonder'boy · 4 games
25%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
JG · 3 games
67%

InterActive Philippines

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
419 picks · 340 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 539 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 379 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
354 picks · 183 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 439 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 581 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 813 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
329 picks · 518 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% InterActive Philippines
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% The MongolZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:21
The MongolZ 61%InterActive Philippines 39%
The model gave 61% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by The MongolZ in 28:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusJG
65% · 30 games49% · 98 games
Monkey KingNishababy
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerWonder'boy
50% · 32 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHishge
38% · 36 games
Game 2prediction missed10:42
The MongolZ 63%InterActive Philippines 37%
The model gave 63% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 26:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanJG
little data39% · 47 games
LinaNishababy
Lina
Tiny
TinyWonder'boy
61% · 47 games
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterHishge
little data
Game 3prediction missed38:45
The MongolZ 65%InterActive Philippines 35%
The model gave 65% on The MongolZ — the game was taken by InterActive Philippines in 56:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusJG
57% · 26 games46% · 75 games
LinaNishababy
Lina
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritWonder'boy
45% · 18 games
Lion
LionHishge
60% · 31 game
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 73%
Series resultInterActive Philippines 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3