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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Spiky Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 18 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Poloson · 17 games
59%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 16 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 14 games
64%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 13 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
flyfly · 12 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
BoBoKa · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 12 games
58%

Spiky Gaming

Muerta
Muerta
TK · 11 games
27%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 7 games
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
生死 · 7 games
43%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
TK · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
33%
Lion
Lionsignature
TK · 6 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
419 picks · 340 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
407 picks · 539 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
362 picks · 379 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
354 picks · 183 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 439 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 581 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
332 picks · 813 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
329 picks · 518 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength58% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total91% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:2
Yakult Brothers 78%Spiky Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 19:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
53% · 322 games54% · 322 games
Timbersawukiyo
Timbersaw
Lycan
Lycanzeal
49% · 19 games51% · 333 games
Doom生死
Doom
Tiny
TinyEmo
48% · 296 games50% · 233 games
RazorButterflyEffect
Razor
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
47% · 231 game49% · 267 games
MuertaTK
Muerta
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoBoKa
50% · 287 games
Game 2prediction correct22:6
Yakult Brothers 79%Spiky Gaming 21%
The model gave 79% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 26:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAme
55% · 291 game47% · 72 games
Lifestealerukiyo
Lifestealer
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerzeal
53% · 92 games46% · 328 games
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerEmo
57% · 165 games46% · 180 games
Storm SpiritButterflyEffect
Storm Spirit
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi天命
56% · 93 games45% · 227 games
Dark WillowTK
Dark Willow
Muerta
MuertaBoBoKa
48% · 166 games
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 91%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2