PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ascent Esportsloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Young Bloodwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ascent Esports
Clockwerkoften banned
czy · 4 games
Lion
TrazaM · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 4 games
Dark Willow
TrazaM · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Muerta
TrazaM · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
RA1NCLOUD · 2 games
Ogre Magi
czy · 2 games
Young Blood
Earthshaker
MamangDaya · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Red · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
LOyd · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
418 picks · 340 bans
Clockwerk
406 picks · 538 bans
Tusk
362 picks · 379 bans
Lion
353 picks · 183 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 439 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 579 bans
Beastmaster
332 picks · 811 bans
Gyrocopter
329 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength64% Young Blood
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Ascent Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:30
Ascent Esports 52%Young Blood 48%
The model gave 52% on Ascent Esports — the game was taken by Young Blood in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenMangO
TerrorbladeTraVins
LionTrazaM
Night StalkerRed
Grimstrokeczy
MarsMamangDaya
57% · 37 games
Ogre MagiLOyd
49% · 27 games
Shadow Shamandalul
Game 3prediction missed31:46
Ascent Esports 50%Young Blood 50%
The model gave 50% on Ascent Esports — the game was taken by Young Blood in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaMangO
HuskarMamangDaya
Ember SpiritTrazaM
TinyTraVins
Clockwerkczy
Night StalkerRed
56% · 99 games
Nyx Assassindalul
49% · 78 games
LichLOyd
Model check result
Model favoriteAscent Esports · 57%
Series resultYoung Blood 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2