European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TT Teamloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MOUZ
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 23 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 20 games
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 19 games
Hoodwink
NARMAN · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Supream^ · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
bengan · 18 games
TT Team
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
416 picks · 339 bans
Clockwerk
406 picks · 537 bans
Tusk
362 picks · 379 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 435 bans
Lion
352 picks · 182 bans
Pangolier
347 picks · 579 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 809 bans
Phoenix
329 picks · 340 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
MOUZ 87%TT Team 13%
The model gave 87% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Game 2prediction correct
MOUZ 87%TT Team 13%
The model gave 87% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 87%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2