?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TT Teamloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
One Movewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TT Team

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 23 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 22 games
64%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 19 games
37%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
61%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 339 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
411 picks · 538 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
365 picks · 379 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
353 picks · 182 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
352 picks · 437 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 584 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
330 picks · 810 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 512 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:41
TT Team 22%One Move 78%
The model gave 78% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 31:29.
Game 2prediction missed28:41
TT Team 22%One Move 78%
The model gave 78% on One Move — the game was taken by TT Team in 46:35.
Game 3prediction correct33:26
TT Team 22%One Move 78%
The model gave 78% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 37:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 78%
Series resultOne Move 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3