DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:3series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Chimera Esportswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 16 games
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Chimera Esports
Clockwerksignature
OneJey · 9 games
Enigmasignature
Daxak · 9 games
Muertasignature
OneJey · 9 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Panto · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 6 games
Tusksignature
Panto · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Daxak · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
TA2000 · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
411 picks · 536 bans
Muerta
409 picks · 339 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 382 bans
Lion
353 picks · 179 bans
Batrider
352 picks · 435 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 583 bans
Beastmaster
330 picks · 811 bans
Gyrocopter
327 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 79%
Hero pool strength59% Chimera Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Chimera Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:34
Nigma Galaxy 46%Chimera Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 42:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMiracle-
LifestealerTA2000
Dragon KnightSumaiL
Storm SpiritLorenof
AxeNo!ob
BristlebackDaxak
Elder TitanGH
MuertaOneJey
HoodwinkOmaR
LichPanto
Game 2prediction missed32:30
Nigma Galaxy 50%Chimera Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaSumaiL
Dragon KnightLorenof
BristlebackNo!ob
Phantom AssassinTA2000
ClinkzMiracle-
BeastmasterDaxak
Shadow ShamanOmaR
MuertaOneJey
Elder TitanGH
PugnaPanto
Game 3prediction correct8:35
Nigma Galaxy 46%Chimera Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightMiracle-
PangolierLorenof
Earth SpiritSumaiL
MagnusTA2000
Primal BeastNo!ob
BrewmasterDaxak
PhoenixGH
MuertaOneJey
RubickOmaR
OraclePanto
Game 4prediction correct15:33
Nigma Galaxy 49%Chimera Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Chimera Esports — the game was taken by Chimera Esports in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MagnusSumaiL
SniperLorenof
BristlebackNo!ob
Void SpiritTA2000
ClinkzMiracle-
SlardarDaxak
Elder TitanGH
MuertaOneJey
Shadow ShamanOmaR
PugnaPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteChimera Esports · 51%
Series resultChimera Esports 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4