The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingwin 2:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
剑剑来！loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Rising
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Kezoften banned
lou · 2 games
Void Spirit
Q7 · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
lou · 1 game
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Q7 · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Undyne_ · 1 game
剑来！
Phoenixoften banned
RedPanda · 2 games
Tiny
Hao · 2 games
Hoodwink
Frisk · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Dstones · 1 game
Lion
Frisk · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Inflame · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Inflame · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
630 picks · 419 bans
Rubick
537 picks · 302 bans
Phoenix
487 picks · 585 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
431 picks · 623 bans
Puck
354 picks · 1002 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 299 bans
Ember Spirit
341 picks · 528 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength59% 剑来！
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% 剑来！
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:27
Cloud Rising 43%剑来！ 57%
The model gave 57% on 剑来！ — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful SpiritYumeyume
DoomInflame
AxeIce Coke
PuckDstones
Ember SpiritQ7
TinyHao
Skywrath Magesheep
Winter WyvernRedPanda
Witch Doctor谢乐zzz张泽中
TuskFrisk
Game 2prediction correct18:40
Cloud Rising 44%剑来！ 56%
The model gave 56% on 剑来！ — the game was taken by 剑来！ in 36:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezYumeyume
Queen of PainDstones
Void SpiritQ7
TinyHao
AxeIce Coke
TidehunterInflame
Witch Doctor谢乐zzz张泽中
UndyingRedPanda
Skywrath Magesheep
HoodwinkFrisk
Game 3prediction missed29:10
Cloud Rising 43%剑来！ 57%
The model gave 57% on 剑来！ — the game was taken by Cloud Rising in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendYumeyume
TimbersawInflame
PuckQ7
InvokerDstones
Primal BeastIce Coke
UrsaHao
Warlock谢乐zzz张泽中
UndyingRedPanda
Tusksheep
HoodwinkFrisk
Model check result
Model favorite剑来！ · 60%
Series resultCloud Rising 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3