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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Batrider
Batridersignature
Hellscream · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Skem · 12 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
50%

Wildcard Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Speeed · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 2 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
RCY · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
YamSun · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 1 game
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Bignum · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 539 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
407 picks · 339 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 387 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
354 picks · 179 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 582 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
349 picks · 437 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
335 picks · 808 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 503 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:29
Shopify Rebellion 61%Wildcard Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTimado
53% · 192 games51% · 238 games
GyrocopterYamSun
Gyrocopter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
48% · 230 games53% · 39 games
HuskarRCY
Huskar
Visage
Visagemangekyou
39% · 94 games49% · 21 game
LycanFayde
Lycan
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHellscream
56% · 131 game43% · 356 games
BatriderBignum
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSkem
53% · 284 games54% · 277 games
ClockwerkSpeeed
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct33:13
Shopify Rebellion 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 26:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycanmangekyou
57% · 40 games48% · 185 games
Dragon KnightYamSun
Dragon Knight
Magnus
MagnusTimado
51% · 215 games53% · 108 games
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
41% · 176 games47% · 225 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Weaver
WeaverHellscream
49% · 219 games46% · 150 games
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Lich
LichSkem
53% · 86 games62% · 68 games
Elder TitanSpeeed
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2