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DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 21 game
57%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 19 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 18 games
72%
Underlord
Underlord
Ace · 16 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 15 games
40%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Mirana
tOfu · 13 games
54%

Tundra Esports

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
33 · 31 game
61%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 31 game
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 27 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 27 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 24 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
410 picks · 538 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
406 picks · 337 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 387 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
351 picks · 581 bans
45%
Batrider
Batrider
349 picks · 433 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
333 picks · 804 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 498 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 51%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
Gaimin Gladiators 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 26:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoWatson
54% · 12 games43% · 10 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingQuinn
55% · 110 games43% · 132 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Magnus
MagnusAce
50% · 103 games48% · 102 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Chen
ChenSeleri
61% · 89 games46% · 82 games
Nyx AssassinSaksa
Nyx Assassin
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HuntertOfu
43% · 19 games47% · 7 games
WarlockWhitemon
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct34:34
Gaimin Gladiators 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:03:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
48% · 140 games51% · 123 games
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Lifestealer
Doom
DoomAce
55% · 203 games48% · 94 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritQuinn
51% · 130 games52% · 250 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Muerta
MuertatOfu
55% · 139 games50% · 298 games
Shadow DemonSaksa
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
42% · 225 games47% · 72 games
LichWhitemon
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2