PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
TT Teamwin 2:1series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TT Team
Batrideroften banned
Askold · 1 game
Night Pulse
Jakiro
Hduo · 22 games
Hoodwink
JANTER · 17 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 14 games
Svensignature
V-Tune · 14 games
Ursasignature
V-Tune · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 11 games
Rubick
JANTER · 11 games
Invokersignature
Worick · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
406 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 387 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 804 bans
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Night Pulse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:29
TT Team 26%Night Pulse 74%
The model gave 74% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by TT Team in 41:57.
Game 2prediction correct23:50
TT Team 26%Night Pulse 74%
The model gave 74% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 44:26.
Game 3prediction missed
TT Team 26%Night Pulse 74%
The model gave 74% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by TT Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 74%
Series resultTT Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3