PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAloss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xxanblwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ASAKURA
Invokeroften banned
young G · 4 games
Lion
slimeyao · 4 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
Lich
so bad · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Palantimos · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 2 games
xanbl
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
406 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 387 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 804 bans
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ASAKURA 73%xanbl 27%
The model gave 73% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA.
Game 2prediction missed
ASAKURA 73%xanbl 27%
The model gave 73% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by xanbl.
Game 3prediction missed
ASAKURA 73%xanbl 27%
The model gave 73% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by xanbl.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 73%
Series resultxanbl 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3