PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionHHopebringerswin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GGGENESIS GAMING ALPHAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hopebringers
No games played over 6 months.
GENESIS GAMING ALPHA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 540 bans
Muerta
406 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 388 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 583 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 806 bans
Phoenix
328 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Hopebringers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Hopebringers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Hopebringers 52%GENESIS GAMING ALPHA 48%
The model gave 52% on Hopebringers — the game was taken by Hopebringers.
Game 2prediction correct
Hopebringers 52%GENESIS GAMING ALPHA 48%
The model gave 52% on Hopebringers — the game was taken by Hopebringers.
Model check result
Model favoriteHopebringers · 52%
Series resultHopebringers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2