DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Winter Bearwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Advance Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Winter Bear
Dark Willow
jAMES · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
jAMES · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Hoodwink
jAMES · 1 game
Tuskoften banned
jAMES · 1 game
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 536 bans
Muerta
405 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 388 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
347 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
338 picks · 798 bans
Phoenix
327 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Advance Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:29
Winter Bear 58%Advance Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 33:56.
Game 2prediction correct40:30
Winter Bear 58%Advance Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 38:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 58%
Series resultWinter Bear 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2