DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionKBKodiak Bearswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The Covenantloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kodiak Bears
No games played over 6 months.
The Covenant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 536 bans
Muerta
405 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 388 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 582 bans
Batrider
347 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
338 picks · 798 bans
Phoenix
327 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Kodiak Bears
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Kodiak Bears
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:31
Kodiak Bears 63%The Covenant 37%
The model gave 63% on Kodiak Bears — the game was taken by The Covenant in 22:26.
Game 2prediction correct43:5
Kodiak Bears 63%The Covenant 37%
The model gave 63% on Kodiak Bears — the game was taken by Kodiak Bears in 18:47.
Game 3prediction correct42:24
Kodiak Bears 63%The Covenant 37%
The model gave 63% on Kodiak Bears — the game was taken by Kodiak Bears in 25:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteKodiak Bears · 63%
Series resultKodiak Bears 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3