DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Jigglinwin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Jigglin
Batrideroften banned
Lelis · 4 games
Sniperoften banned
Copy · 2 games
Tuskoften banned
Lelis · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Se · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
423 · 1 game
OG
Hoodwink
Ari · 27 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 24 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 17 games
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
Batridersignature
Ari · 15 games
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
413 picks · 533 bans
Muerta
403 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 387 bans
Lion
355 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 583 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 798 bans
Phoenix
326 picks · 335 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:10
Jigglin 43%OG 57%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by Jigglin in 31:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa423
Morphling23savage
Monkey KingCopy
ZeusNine
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
PhoenixCeb
Shadow ShamanLelis
Nyx AssassinAri
Shadow DemonSe
EnchantressxNova
Game 2prediction missed32:2
Jigglin 41%OG 59%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by Jigglin in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin423
PangolierNine
Earth SpiritCopy
BeastmasterCeb
MagnusMinD_ContRoL
Spectre23savage
MuertaLelis
Nyx AssassinAri
Shadow DemonSe
Crystal MaidenxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 64%
Series resultJigglin 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2