PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionYyybsloss 0:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Spiky Gamingwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
yybs
No games played over 6 months.
Spiky Gaming
Muerta
TK · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
生死 · 7 games
Doomoften banned
生死 · 7 games
Dark Willow
TK · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 6 games
Lionsignature
TK · 6 games
Bristlebackoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
413 picks · 533 bans
Muerta
403 picks · 334 bans
Tusk
365 picks · 387 bans
Lion
355 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 583 bans
Batrider
348 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 798 bans
Phoenix
326 picks · 335 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% yybs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Spiky Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
yybs 38%Spiky Gaming 62%
The model gave 62% on Spiky Gaming — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpiky Gaming · 62%
Series resultSpiky Gaming 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1