PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Perro Negroloss 0:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Infamouswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Perro Negro
Gyrocopteroften banned
Wits · 3 games
Enchantressoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
kendallx · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Chenoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Mjz · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
kendallx · 1 game
Infamous
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
DM · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 536 bans
Muerta
404 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
Lion
354 picks · 176 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 584 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 431 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 795 bans
Phoenix
325 picks · 331 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Perro Negro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Perro Negro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Perro Negro 57%Infamous 43%
The model gave 57% on Perro Negro — the game was taken by Infamous.
Model check result
Model favoritePerro Negro · 57%
Series resultInfamous 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1