PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionTTToLight Teamloss 0:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yyybswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ToLight Team
No games played over 6 months.
yybs
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 535 bans
Muerta
404 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
Lion
353 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 431 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 791 bans
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% ToLight Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% yybs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ToLight Team 43%yybs 57%
The model gave 57% on yybs — the game was taken by yybs.
Model check result
Model favoriteyybs · 57%
Series resultyybs 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1