DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fusionwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Batrideroften banned
Genek · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Muerta
Genek · 9 games
Ogre Magi
Gardick · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Medusasignature
Lumière · 6 games
Morphlingoften banned
Lumière · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 5 games
Fusion
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 10 games
Ogre Magisignature
Prada · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 8 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Mnz · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Prada · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Frank · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 525 bans
Muerta
401 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 573 bans
Lion
347 picks · 173 bans
Batrider
341 picks · 428 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 780 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 477 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% Fusion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Fusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:30
Hokori 50%Fusion 50%
The model gave 50% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreLumière
Phantom AssassinMnz
BristlebackSacred
Shadow FiendLeostyle
TinyDarkMago
Primal BeastFrank
PhoenixGardick
Nyx AssassinMichael
LionGenek
ClockwerkPrada
Game 2prediction correct11:40
Hokori 49%Fusion 51%
The model gave 51% on Fusion — the game was taken by Fusion in 33:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingLumière
Dragon KnightMnz
DawnbreakerSacred
TinyLeostyle
Queen of PainDarkMago
EnigmaFrank
EnchantressGardick
BatriderMichael
Nyx AssassinGenek
PhoenixPrada
Model check result
Model favoriteFusion · 56%
Series resultFusion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2